Disorder, deal or dead-end – How will Brexit play out?

LONDON (Reuters) – The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on March 29, yet little is clear: There is, so far, no divorce deal, rivals to Prime Minister Theresa May are circling and some MPs are pushing for a rerun of the 2016 referendum.

Anti-Brexit demonstrators wave EU and Union flags opposite the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls

How will the Brexit finale play out?

Following are scenarios:


If May is toppled, fails to reach a deal with the EU or finds her deal is rejected by parliament, the United Kingdom would be plunged into crisis.

Many opponents of Brexit predict this outcome, as do some supporters of a deeper break with the EU than that advocated by the prime minister.


May’s botched snap election in 2017 lost her party its majority in parliament. Her minority government is now propped up by nine Democratic Unionist Party MPs from Northern Ireland.

Her own Conservative Party, which has grappled with schism over Europe for 30 years, is in open conflict and some MPs want a change of leader to be tougher in Brexit negotiations.

If May fell, the Conservative Party would have to select a new leader, a step that would delay already tight negotiations. A national election is possible, though not legally necessary.

Opinion polls, though, show the United Kingdom is divided in its support for Brexit and political parties: no party has a clear enough lead to confidently predict victory in an election.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a socialist who voted ‘out’ in the 1975 referendum on membership of the European Community,

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