LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s government intensified its warnings on Wednesday about a no-deal Brexit, saying it would damage the economy while Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for leaving the European Union, opposed by many lawmakers, would soften the blow.
Demonstrators protest against Brexit outside the Houses of Parliament in London, Britain, November 28, 2018. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
(GRAPHIC-Brexit economic impact tmsnrt.rs/2Rl7mxJ)
Below are the main points of an analysis published by the government, based on different Brexit scenarios.
All show a loss to the economy compared with staying in the EU, but to differing degrees.
SCENARIO BASED ON MAY’S PLANS FOR DEAL WITH EU
– By around 2035 the economy is likely to be about 2.1 percent smaller than if Britain had stayed in the EU. On a per-person basis, the hit is also 2.1 percent. But this assumes no change to current migration rules while May plans to restrict free movement of EU workers to Britain after Brexit.
– Assuming there is no longer any net migration into Britain from the EU, the loss to the economy by around 2035 is likely to increase to 3.9 percent — or 2.7 percent on a per-person basis.
– The analysis shows a negligible impact on the government’s projected borrowing under May’s proposed deal for Brexit.
“NO DEAL” BREXIT
– The economy would be likely to end up roughly 7.7 percent smaller by around 20