How does the Brexit maelstrom end: Deal, no Brexit or crash?

LONDON (Reuters) – The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union is uncertain nearly three years since the 2016 Brexit vote.

British Prime Minister Theresa May addresses a news conference at the EU summit in Brussels, Belgium, June 23, 2017. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir

Most diplomats and investors think the United Kingdom faces three main options: leaving with a divorce deal, throwing the question back to the people or crashing out without a deal.

To see a graphic of no-deal Brexit probabilities from major banks: here

Following are the main scenarios:

1) BREXIT WITH A DEAL – May gets her deal approved at a third, or even fourth, attempt and the United Kingdom leaves in an orderly fashion.

May’s divorce treaty, the product of more than two years of tortuous negotiations with the EU, was defeated by 149 votes on March 12 and by 230 votes on Jan. 15.

She may try again next week.

She told lawmakers that unless they approved her Brexit divorce deal, Britain’s EU exit could face a much longer delay than three months.

To get it through parliament, she must win over dozens of Brexit-supporting rebels in her own Conservative Party and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which props up her minority government.

The DUP said it had good talks with British ministers on Friday to see what additional assurances would be needed for them to save her deal.

If she fails next week, there is even talk she could come back for a fourth vote. May could seek to get last-minute concessions at a March 21-22 EU summit.

The EU has repeatedly said it is the only deal on the table and that it will not reopen it.

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